The number of cases of the H1N1 flu appear to be on the decline, according to new data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The virus is still widespread in 43 states, which is down from 46 last week and 48 states the week before.

For the first time since the second wave of flu activity, the outbreak in the Rochester area is trending downward.

Experts say these numbers are encouraging, but warn we haven't seen the last of this virus.

While the numbers look good, it is still too early to tell if the second wave of the H1N1 virus has peaked in the Rochester area.

Even if it has peaked, pandemics can come in three waves, which means the public should continue to take precautions.

"It's very unpredictable what's going to happen and that might be an indication that we're past the peak and are on the downturn," said Dr. John Treanor, University of Rochester.

Dr. Treanor expects this downward trend in H1N1 cases to continue.

Because the spread of the H1N1 virus is closely attached to when school is in session, Treanor expects flu activity to drop even further over the holidays. That will give more people time to get the vaccine and hopefully prevent a third outbreak.

"I suspect that unless something happens and the virus changes and we're not immune to it anymore, we really won't see it in spring, but it's really hard to know. We have to be prepared for that possibility," Dr. Treanor added.

So far, the risks associated with the vaccine appear to be very low, and with more and more doses of the vaccine becoming available each week, Treanor says his advice is simple.

"If the vaccine is available and you still haven't gotten it yet, you should still get it because we just don't know what's going to happen in the future."

Last week, 16,000 Monroe County residents received the H1N1 vaccine during public clinics. Four-thousand leftover doses from those efforts have been turned over to the local doctors for distribution.

The CDC is still behind its original projections, but made 11 million more doses of the vaccine available last week.

CDC