We're getting a sense of how Democratic voters are leaning in the primary race for Rochester Mayor. Here's YNN's Cristina Domingues with a look at some of the numbers in our exclusive Voice of the Voter - YNN Siena Research Poll.
YNN teamed up with the Voice of the Voter partners WXXI, 13-WHAM-TV, WDKX and the Democrat and Chronicle to conduct the first of two polls with Siena Research leading up to Rochester's Mayoral Democratic primary. Incumbent Rochester Mayor Tom Richards faces Rochester City Council President Lovely Warren in the September 10th Primary.
In this exclusive Voice of the Voter YNN - Siena Research Poll we asked 1,000 registered city voters more than two dozen questions about the candidates and upcoming election.
Of those, 606 were registered Democrats. The polling took place from July 29th to August 1st and has a margin of error of +/- 4% for the registered democrats who participated.
We asked Democratic voters, "If the Democratic primary for Mayor were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:"
Tom Richards: 55%
Lovely Warren: 28%
17% said don't know, No opinion.
We also asked Democrats, "How likely would you say your are to vote for your candidate?"
49% said absolutely certain, there's no chance I would change my mind.
35% said fairly certain, it's unlikely I will change my mind.
12% said not very certain, I very well may change my mind.
4% said not certain at all, there's a good chance I will change my mind.
1% said don't know or no opinion.
Once again we asked Democrats, "For each of the following issues, I'd like you to tell me who you think would do a better job representing you as Rochester's Mayor on fighting crime:"
Tom Richards: 52%
Lovely Warren: 24%
24% said they didn't know or no opinion.
On improving public education:
Tom Richards: 36%
Lovely Warren: 37%
27% said they didn't know or no opinion.
On addressing neighborhood concerns:
Tom Richards: 38%
Lovely Warren: 43%
19% said they didn't know or no opinion.
And finally on creating jobs:
Tom Richards: 51%
Lovely Warren: 24%
25% said they didn't know or no opinion.
Primary day is September 10th. The winner of the democratic mayoral primary will face Green Party candidate Alex White in the November general election.
Tom Richards will appear on the Working Families and Independence party lines of the ballot in the general election.
Democratic Primary Mayoral Race
The Director of the Siena College Research Institute Dr. Don Levy talked with YNN's Virginia Butler to share his thoughts on the Democratic Primary Mayoral poll.
YNN Rochester: Exclusive Voice of the Voter YNN Siena Research Poll
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Doctor Don Levy, thank you for joining us to talk about the poll. First, what is your impression when you look at these numbers?
Levy: Well this first thing is this is a race for the incumbent. mayor Richards is in a very strong position. He's well known, he's well liked, a majority of Rochester voters think Rochester's on the right track. Yes, there's problems but right now the mayor has a very commanding lead as the primary approaches.
What does a poll like this show the voters?
Levy: Well what it tells the voters is that right now when you ask a representative sample of Democratic voters in the City of Rochester, that the mayor has a 27 point lead over the challenger Lovely Warren. Now when you look deeper into the numbers you see there is dissatisfaction in the city especially with the condition or schools, to some extent how responsive government is, so there is a bit of an avenue for change. But when you look overall at the numbers the mayor is well liked, his job performance is seen positively, and at this point early in the campaign it looks as though the city is headed towards reelecting Mayor Tom Richards.
How do you think these numbers influence either of the campaigns?
Levy: Both campaigns are going to look at this and they're going to take a look at what their strategy is. If you look at Lovely Warren she's going to say at this point she is well known, 50% of Rochester voters have a favorable impression of her. Only 20% a negative. She does not have strong negatives. Where is she strong? On issues like addressing neighborhood concerns, the quality of public education. Those are the areas where people are most concerned and feel as though there's room for improvement and so that's what I think she's going to stress in her campaign. Mayor Richards is going to say: 'if it's not broken, why fix it?.' The majority think that he should be reelected, the majority approve of his job performance, and a small majority of Rochester voters say the city's on the right track. He's going to say give me four more years to continue to do what i'm doing, to continue to move Rochester forward. I think the election will close a little bit as we get closer. The undecideds quite often break for the challenger, not the incumbent. But right now the incumbent at 55% has a very strong majority.
YNN will have follow up reports throughout the week on various topics of concern to registered voters in the city that are covered in the poll. We start with the mayor's race, beginning Sunday night.
Voice of the Voter YNN Siena Research Poll by YEC2222